Idaho agriculture is a mixed bag right now

By Sean Ellis

Idaho Farm Bureau Federation

GARDEN CITY – Idaho’s farming sector is a tale of two agricultural economies right now.

On the one hand, the livestock sector, particularly cattle and calves, is doing good. On the other hand, almost everything else, on the crop side, is struggling financially.

“Cattle is king right now,” University of Idaho agricultural economist Brett Wilder said during U of I’s annual Idaho Ag Outlook Seminar Dec. 17.

But, he added, agriculture overall “continues to suffer from input inflation” and depressed farm-level prices.

About 125 people attended the ag outlook seminar, which included several presenters who provided a look at what is going on now in the agricultural world and offered projections for what 2026 would bring.

The seminar could be summed up like this: cattle good, everything else bad.

U of I agricultural economists estimate Idaho’s agricultural industry brought in $12.1 billion in farm-gate revenue in 2025. That would be a record and it also, by itself, does not tell the whole story.

That record total, if it holds, will have been achieved largely on the back of Idaho’s livestock industry. On the crop side, every major crop in Idaho is experiencing lower prices and sometimes dramatically lower prices.

According to a producer sentiment survey by Purdue University, the biggest concern of farmers last year was input costs, said Xiaoli Etienne, a U of I researcher who focuses on commodity risk management.

“Unfortunately, the same concern still holds today,” she said. “That speaks volumes on how much pressure our producers have been under….”

Some farm costs, such as liquid fuels and interest rates, are down and others, such as chemicals and machinery and repairs, are mostly flat, she said. But costs for hired labor, fertilizers, farmland rental rates and electricity are up.

Etienne said USDA forecasts that farm production expenses will increase by 2 percent in 2026.

This year’s outlook for most of Idaho’s major crops was not good. For example, U of I Extension educator Colby Field did not have great news for the state’s grain farmers, who could be facing another year of depressed prices.

The reason is simple: there is plenty of world supply for grains right now and the supply-and-demand situation is not favorable for higher farm-level prices.

“There’s quite a bit of wheat still available in the world,” Field said. “That puts downward pressure on wheat prices.”

It’s the same for corn and barley, he added.

Hay is one of Idaho’s top three crops in terms of total farm-gate receipts.

“Hay demand has been sluggish,” said U of I Extension educator Reed Findlay. The 2025 growing season was amazing and Idaho farmers produced a lot of high-quality hay, he said.

“Boy, have we got a lot of alfalfa left over and it’s going to be hard to get through,” he said. “That puts downward pressure on the price.”

During this extended period of low farm-level prices, smart management practices are more critical than ever, Findlay said.

“Increased risk demands better management,” he said. “Don’t produce your way to profitability. Manage your way to profitability.”

Findlay offered one positive note for hay producers: low hay prices may have bottomed out.

“I think we are at the bottom of the hay market and it could be up from here,” he said.

Farm-level potato prices are also extremely low right now and the outlook for Idaho’s spud farmers is no better than for producers of other crops.

“Most major potato countries had good production conditions in 2025,” said U of I Extension specialist Pat Hatzenbuehler. “There are a lot of potatoes available globally.”

Compared to the crop sector, the state’s livestock sector is doing much better, Wilder said. That’s particularly true of the beef sector, which is carrying the crop sector right now, he said.

The U.S. has its smallest cattle inventory since the 1950s and consumer demand continues to remain high, he said.

“The American consumer has never demanded as much beef as they do now,” Wilder said. “They love beef. Demand for beef has been remarkably strong.”

Milk has traditionally been the state’s top commodity in terms of total farm-gate revenue but may have gotten bumped down to the No. 2 spot in 2025 by the cattle sector. However, since all milk cows eventually are processed, high beef prices are good for the dairy sector.

The global supply of milk is high right now and milk prices moved lower in 2025, said Dustin Winston, director of business development for StoneX Financial.

“Here’s the kicker,” he said. “Cattle prices have been amazing for dairymen.”

Because of that, he said, we can have relatively low milk prices like we do now “and still be making money because of where the beef price is.”

Looking forward to 2026, Wilder said, crop farmers are expected to continue to struggle financially. And while livestock receipts are expected to retreat a little bit from their highs, they are forecast to remain strong.

“The crop sector is expected to continue to be squeezed,” he said. “Our inability to keep up with fixed costs is going to continue to weigh on the agricultural sector.”

Doug Robison, the Idaho president for AgWest Farm Credit, said there may be some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for farmers who have struggled financially recently, but it’s going to take a while to shine through.

“We are going to find our bottom here and going to start to come back up,” he said. “But before we get there, 2026 is going to be a challenging year.”