Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture

Each year Idaho legislators in the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee hear from people from different industries, economists and academics, to try and get an idea of what revenue the state might have in the coming year and what they can budget for. University of Idaho Agricultural Economist Brett Wilder presented them with his take on the financial condition of agriculture in Idaho in 2025, and the forecast for 2026.

Verbatim:

 “My name is Brett Wilder. I am an assistant professor and area extension educator of farm business management with the University of Idaho,” said agricultural economist Brett Wilder.

“I'm fortunate to be part of the group of speakers that comes in for the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee.”

Each year the Idaho legislators in that committee hear from people from different industries, economists and academics, to try and get an idea of what revenue the state might have in the coming year and what they can budget for.

“And my role as part of that meeting is to give a pretty good outlook for what did agriculture do in 2025? What's the forecast looking forward for 2026?” said Wilder.

It’s part of a series of meetings for them to hear from as many experts as they can.

“It absolutely is a crazy year for agriculture, and agriculture in 2025 for both the U.S. and for Idaho is really a tale of two different ag economies,” said Wilder. “We have the livestock sector that's frankly fared fairly well and the crop sector that has not done as well. Top line number, we're looking at a new all-time high number for cash receipts at about 12.1 billion. Very much led higher by cattle and calves, up 18% to 3.9 billion.”

But most crop prices are a different story.

“Potatoes down about 12%, sugar beets down about 17%. Across the crop sector, looking at either flat numbers or declines, large global supplies, very poor prices,” said Wilder.

Production for many crops  was good, but that didn’t genernally translate into profits. fuel costs were down, but many other inputs cost were up, like labor and transportation.

There was also the farmer bridge assistance program from the usda designed to give producers some relief, but Wildler says that amounts to a drop in the bucket compared to production expenses.

“Just trying to look for a little bit of stability, get costs in check, and hopefully have a little better bottom lines in 2026,” said Wilder.

“The food manufacturing sector has grown tremendously. Huge job growth in food manufacturing. Food manufacturing GDP has grown 52% in the state of Idaho since 2017, as opposed to 16% for farm production GDP. So certainly adding a lot of value there, and I think we will see some increased revenue to the state.”

“Both legislators and folks at the Division of Financial Management have a pretty sophisticated model for this. Really what they're hoping to learn from us and from people like me is what is the trend? Are we projecting growth? Can we look forward and based on historical revenues from that sector, should we expect to see a little bit more or a little bit less?  

“And so as we look forward to see what the final revenue assessment is, what the final forecast is, I have a feeling that it will likely be conservative coming out of this committee, just given the shortfalls that we have. But my job here is just to try to help it be a complete picture for them to make that decision.”